Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Twins Pitching Plans
There's a glut of pitching in this organization. The starters are starting to turn it around, and the bullpen has been a major strength (excepting Crain and Eyre) all year. What do you do moving forward?
Here's my plan:
2006 rotation:
As it stands: Santana, Liriano, Radke, Silva, Bonser
My 2006 rotation: Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Radke (trade Silva if he strings together a few good starts.)
My 2007 rotation: Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Durbin
Key rotation members moving forward:
Santana and Liriano are no-brainers.
Boof Bonser has a fairly ugly 5.48 ERA, but he's been getting unlucky. He's allowed a reasonable 25 hits in 23 IP and walked only 7, but an ungodly amount of his fly balls are turning into homers, and those hits have been strung together into big innings. That will settle down. The peripherals are nice: 3.00 K/BB, 8.22 K/9. Throwing a few too many pitches per inning, but that will settle down as well. I've been really impressed by his ability to throw the curveball in all counts. I didn't know what to expect of Bonser coming into this year, but I'm convinced now that he has a reasonable chance to be a #2 type (3.30-3.70 ERA, K/9 of around 7.50). If he can maintain the good strikeout numbers while remaining in the big leagues, he's going to be a valuable member of the rotation.
Scott Baker was very unlucky this year, but he's still got above-average stuff and immaculate control. Lost behind his 6.06 ERA was a 41:8 K/BB ratio and a 7.53 K/9, both gains over his 2005 numbers. I still think he projects as a similar pitcher as Bonser (3.30-3.70 ERA, K/9 of around 7.20) with slightly lower strikeout numbers and slightly better control.
Gotta give Durbin a shot in 2007 with the season he's having so far. I'm convinced that the best spot for him will eventually be in the bullpen, but he should be given a shot to be a member of the rotation first. If he can come all the way back from shoulder surgery, he could still profile as an ace. Most likely, however, his reduced strikeouts in AAA suggest that he's an average starter at best and would be better served coming out of the pen. He has the stuff to be an ace reliever, and I think pitching fewer innings would better utilize his two plus pitches (high 90s FB and good 12-6 curve), because his tertiary pitch is below average.
Pen:
As it stands: Nathan, Rincon, Reyes, Crain, Eyre, Lohse*
*Keeping spot warm for Guerrier
My 2006 pen: Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Reyes, Neshek, Eyre*
*Keeping spot warm for Guerrier
My 2007 pen: Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Neshek, LOOGY (Reyes if he keeps it up, otherwise AAA pitcher Ricky Barrett), Guerrier
Nathan and Rincon are no-brainers.
Crain has turned a corner. I honestly am more happy with the season he's having this year than his season last year. He's regained his strikeout pitch and has only walked 6 in 29 innings, both major improvements. K/BB is outstanding, GB/FB is off the charts, line drives are constant, and he hasn't given up that many homers. He's just been really unlucky. DIPS, which evens out BABIP, has him at a respectable 3.62. You gotta feel for a guy that's having 41.2% of balls put in play turn into hits, especially when nearly 3 of 4 of those balls is a grounder. If this year doesn't go straight to his head, Crain is a future relief ace. Trust me.
Neshek's just gotta be up. He's a filthy, filthy man, and his delivery is downright scary. And so much for the talk about lefties mash him. Including his early-year struggles, he's now holding lefties to a .768 OPS against. Righties? .429. To put that in perspective, Rondell White is sitting at .428. A 14.7 K/9 and only 12 walks in 49.1 innings shows he's got nothing left to prove. He's even striking out nearly 10 lefties per 9 innings against lefties.
Reyes is doing his best Eddie Guardado impersonation, but I fear he will collapse. Still, there's no clear organizational replacement, and he's not really a key pen member anyway. His CERA is 213% higher than his ERA, and his DIPS is 309% higher than his ERA (5.11 to 1.65), good for 8th most skewed DIPS to ERA ratio in the league. He's given up 3 homers in 16.1 innings, not a good sign, and walked too many. He's gotten lucky so far, and he's not a long-term solution.
Eyre is a replacement level reliever. His G/F ratio has been subpar for a guy touted as a groundball pitcher. His strikeouts have been lackluster. He deserves to be pitching at AAA once Guerrier gets healthy.
Guerrier is another key member of the pen. He's one of the better long relief men in the league, able to maintain a low ERA without striking out many because he limits homers and has decent control. He probably deserves an ERA more around 4.00 than low 3s, but he's still valuable.
Notable prospects:
Besides the trio of MLB-ready guys in Baker, Durbin, and Bonser, the Twins are loaded with high-ceiling arms.
My personal faves (in this order)
1- Matt Garza -- an awesome combination of stuff and control. He's one of those guys who seems to have a good feel for pitching. Another California college guy (albeit from Stanford) Mike Mussina comes to mind.
2- Glen Perkins -- his stuff has taken a leap forward recently, and since his breakout AFL performance he's been having a nearly dominant AA stint. Ceiling might be a 2005 Doug Davis. His control isn't what you'd expect of a Twins pitcher.
3- Anthony Swarzak -- Ignore the 4.57 ERA so far at Ft. Myers. He's got good control, good velocity, good stuff, good peripheral stats, and he's a 20-year-old at high A. Right on track for a high school draftee. One of my favorites for a long time, I had him pegged as a sleeper two years ago.
4- Eduardo Morlan -- my favorite sleeper. Another high school draftee, he's absolutely dominating the Midwest league. He features top-notch velocity and a devastating slider.
5- Kevin Slowey -- another college arm, he falls this far due to concerns about strikeout numbers holding up with advanced competition. He's absolutely destroying the FSL right now (92:7 K:BB) and he's got a good build for a pitcher and might have some projection left. He has a chance to be a special pitcher, but recent struggles of high-strikeout, low-stuff pitchers like Yusmeiro Petit and Chuck James give me reason to pause before listing him ahead of guys with better stuff like Morlan and Swarzak.
Don't sleep on: Brian Duensing, Kyle Waldrop, Jay Rainville (out for season), Justin Jones, Oswaldo Sosa.
There's a glut of pitching in this organization. The starters are starting to turn it around, and the bullpen has been a major strength (excepting Crain and Eyre) all year. What do you do moving forward?
Here's my plan:
2006 rotation:
As it stands: Santana, Liriano, Radke, Silva, Bonser
My 2006 rotation: Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Radke (trade Silva if he strings together a few good starts.)
My 2007 rotation: Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Durbin
Key rotation members moving forward:
Santana and Liriano are no-brainers.
Boof Bonser has a fairly ugly 5.48 ERA, but he's been getting unlucky. He's allowed a reasonable 25 hits in 23 IP and walked only 7, but an ungodly amount of his fly balls are turning into homers, and those hits have been strung together into big innings. That will settle down. The peripherals are nice: 3.00 K/BB, 8.22 K/9. Throwing a few too many pitches per inning, but that will settle down as well. I've been really impressed by his ability to throw the curveball in all counts. I didn't know what to expect of Bonser coming into this year, but I'm convinced now that he has a reasonable chance to be a #2 type (3.30-3.70 ERA, K/9 of around 7.50). If he can maintain the good strikeout numbers while remaining in the big leagues, he's going to be a valuable member of the rotation.
Scott Baker was very unlucky this year, but he's still got above-average stuff and immaculate control. Lost behind his 6.06 ERA was a 41:8 K/BB ratio and a 7.53 K/9, both gains over his 2005 numbers. I still think he projects as a similar pitcher as Bonser (3.30-3.70 ERA, K/9 of around 7.20) with slightly lower strikeout numbers and slightly better control.
Gotta give Durbin a shot in 2007 with the season he's having so far. I'm convinced that the best spot for him will eventually be in the bullpen, but he should be given a shot to be a member of the rotation first. If he can come all the way back from shoulder surgery, he could still profile as an ace. Most likely, however, his reduced strikeouts in AAA suggest that he's an average starter at best and would be better served coming out of the pen. He has the stuff to be an ace reliever, and I think pitching fewer innings would better utilize his two plus pitches (high 90s FB and good 12-6 curve), because his tertiary pitch is below average.
Pen:
As it stands: Nathan, Rincon, Reyes, Crain, Eyre, Lohse*
*Keeping spot warm for Guerrier
My 2006 pen: Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Reyes, Neshek, Eyre*
*Keeping spot warm for Guerrier
My 2007 pen: Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Neshek, LOOGY (Reyes if he keeps it up, otherwise AAA pitcher Ricky Barrett), Guerrier
Nathan and Rincon are no-brainers.
Crain has turned a corner. I honestly am more happy with the season he's having this year than his season last year. He's regained his strikeout pitch and has only walked 6 in 29 innings, both major improvements. K/BB is outstanding, GB/FB is off the charts, line drives are constant, and he hasn't given up that many homers. He's just been really unlucky. DIPS, which evens out BABIP, has him at a respectable 3.62. You gotta feel for a guy that's having 41.2% of balls put in play turn into hits, especially when nearly 3 of 4 of those balls is a grounder. If this year doesn't go straight to his head, Crain is a future relief ace. Trust me.
Neshek's just gotta be up. He's a filthy, filthy man, and his delivery is downright scary. And so much for the talk about lefties mash him. Including his early-year struggles, he's now holding lefties to a .768 OPS against. Righties? .429. To put that in perspective, Rondell White is sitting at .428. A 14.7 K/9 and only 12 walks in 49.1 innings shows he's got nothing left to prove. He's even striking out nearly 10 lefties per 9 innings against lefties.
Reyes is doing his best Eddie Guardado impersonation, but I fear he will collapse. Still, there's no clear organizational replacement, and he's not really a key pen member anyway. His CERA is 213% higher than his ERA, and his DIPS is 309% higher than his ERA (5.11 to 1.65), good for 8th most skewed DIPS to ERA ratio in the league. He's given up 3 homers in 16.1 innings, not a good sign, and walked too many. He's gotten lucky so far, and he's not a long-term solution.
Eyre is a replacement level reliever. His G/F ratio has been subpar for a guy touted as a groundball pitcher. His strikeouts have been lackluster. He deserves to be pitching at AAA once Guerrier gets healthy.
Guerrier is another key member of the pen. He's one of the better long relief men in the league, able to maintain a low ERA without striking out many because he limits homers and has decent control. He probably deserves an ERA more around 4.00 than low 3s, but he's still valuable.
Notable prospects:
Besides the trio of MLB-ready guys in Baker, Durbin, and Bonser, the Twins are loaded with high-ceiling arms.
My personal faves (in this order)
1- Matt Garza -- an awesome combination of stuff and control. He's one of those guys who seems to have a good feel for pitching. Another California college guy (albeit from Stanford) Mike Mussina comes to mind.
2- Glen Perkins -- his stuff has taken a leap forward recently, and since his breakout AFL performance he's been having a nearly dominant AA stint. Ceiling might be a 2005 Doug Davis. His control isn't what you'd expect of a Twins pitcher.
3- Anthony Swarzak -- Ignore the 4.57 ERA so far at Ft. Myers. He's got good control, good velocity, good stuff, good peripheral stats, and he's a 20-year-old at high A. Right on track for a high school draftee. One of my favorites for a long time, I had him pegged as a sleeper two years ago.
4- Eduardo Morlan -- my favorite sleeper. Another high school draftee, he's absolutely dominating the Midwest league. He features top-notch velocity and a devastating slider.
5- Kevin Slowey -- another college arm, he falls this far due to concerns about strikeout numbers holding up with advanced competition. He's absolutely destroying the FSL right now (92:7 K:BB) and he's got a good build for a pitcher and might have some projection left. He has a chance to be a special pitcher, but recent struggles of high-strikeout, low-stuff pitchers like Yusmeiro Petit and Chuck James give me reason to pause before listing him ahead of guys with better stuff like Morlan and Swarzak.
Don't sleep on: Brian Duensing, Kyle Waldrop, Jay Rainville (out for season), Justin Jones, Oswaldo Sosa.
Monday, November 14, 2005
Kyle Lohse
Personally, I think we should trade Lohse. But the ignoramuses out there who think he has no trade value are kidding themselves.
Some argue that Lohse has had a lucky year this year. I disagree. Lohse BABIP (batting average on balls in play) ranked 80th of 93 qualified starting pitchers. While there's a great debate about whether pitchers can control their BABIP, it's clear that a lot of it has to do with luck (Roy Oswalt and Scott Kazmir had similar BABIPs and are both considered nearly impossible to hit).
Put this way, if Lohse had a lucky BABIP last year (say .258 like Horacio Ramirez), he could cut his H/9 from 10.63 to 9.27, his WHIP from 1.43 to 1.27, and his BAA from .299 to .259. This is unlikely to happen, but even a moderate swing in luck would render Lohse a 3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .270 BAA starter in the AL, and better in the NL.
Personally, I think we should trade Lohse. But the ignoramuses out there who think he has no trade value are kidding themselves.
Some argue that Lohse has had a lucky year this year. I disagree. Lohse BABIP (batting average on balls in play) ranked 80th of 93 qualified starting pitchers. While there's a great debate about whether pitchers can control their BABIP, it's clear that a lot of it has to do with luck (Roy Oswalt and Scott Kazmir had similar BABIPs and are both considered nearly impossible to hit).
Put this way, if Lohse had a lucky BABIP last year (say .258 like Horacio Ramirez), he could cut his H/9 from 10.63 to 9.27, his WHIP from 1.43 to 1.27, and his BAA from .299 to .259. This is unlikely to happen, but even a moderate swing in luck would render Lohse a 3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .270 BAA starter in the AL, and better in the NL.
Sunday, November 13, 2005
Cuddyer vs. Punto at second base
Career games at 2B
Cuddy 60
Punto 109
Career fielding % at 2B:
Cuddy .985
Punto .980
Career Zone Rating at 2B:
Cuddy .833
Punto .873
Career Range Factor at 2b:
Cuddy 4.63
Punto 5.25
Career Rate/Rate2 at 2B (League avg is 100):
Cuddy 102
Punto 101
Cuddyer is arguably a better defender than Punto at 2B. Offensively, there's no comparison. He'd better play there over Punto.
Career games at 2B
Cuddy 60
Punto 109
Career fielding % at 2B:
Cuddy .985
Punto .980
Career Zone Rating at 2B:
Cuddy .833
Punto .873
Career Range Factor at 2b:
Cuddy 4.63
Punto 5.25
Career Rate/Rate2 at 2B (League avg is 100):
Cuddy 102
Punto 101
Cuddyer is arguably a better defender than Punto at 2B. Offensively, there's no comparison. He'd better play there over Punto.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
Clemens was screwed.
1.87 ERA at 43. You can't say anything more than that. The guy deserved the award hands-down, but both Carpenter and D-Train finished ahead of him. Personally, I thought Dontrelle's claim to the Cy award was better than Carpenter's, mainly because of Carp's horrible last three starts.
Thome might waive his no-trade clause for Minny
Charlie Walters reported this in the Pioneer Press today. He also hinted that Thome might be had for 7 million a year. If this is the case, there's nothing to lose. Thome could hit 50 bombs in the Dome, or he could hit .207 in an injury-shortened season. But for seven million a year, he is a bargain. His troubles were mainly elbow-related last year, and his tender back will be served well by not playing the field as a DH. Thome is just one year removed from being an untradable top-ten player in the majors. The guy can slug for power, decent average, and gets on base better than anyone in the game besides Bonds and Berkman. 49, 52, 47, 42 homers in his last four full seasons. And he's not injury-proned, he got unlucky once. Get this guy.
T-Wolves shut down Lakers
Kobe Bryant is a flaming douchebag, and he takes way too many shots. Only Steve Francis takes worse shots than Bryant. The Wolves are looking decent at this early juncture in the season. They need Szczerbiak to step up his offensive game to be a contender, though. McCants, Hudson, and Hassell are all good role players, but the Wolves need Wally, Jaric, and Griffin to be offensive contributors to win.
1.87 ERA at 43. You can't say anything more than that. The guy deserved the award hands-down, but both Carpenter and D-Train finished ahead of him. Personally, I thought Dontrelle's claim to the Cy award was better than Carpenter's, mainly because of Carp's horrible last three starts.
Thome might waive his no-trade clause for Minny
Charlie Walters reported this in the Pioneer Press today. He also hinted that Thome might be had for 7 million a year. If this is the case, there's nothing to lose. Thome could hit 50 bombs in the Dome, or he could hit .207 in an injury-shortened season. But for seven million a year, he is a bargain. His troubles were mainly elbow-related last year, and his tender back will be served well by not playing the field as a DH. Thome is just one year removed from being an untradable top-ten player in the majors. The guy can slug for power, decent average, and gets on base better than anyone in the game besides Bonds and Berkman. 49, 52, 47, 42 homers in his last four full seasons. And he's not injury-proned, he got unlucky once. Get this guy.
T-Wolves shut down Lakers
Kobe Bryant is a flaming douchebag, and he takes way too many shots. Only Steve Francis takes worse shots than Bryant. The Wolves are looking decent at this early juncture in the season. They need Szczerbiak to step up his offensive game to be a contender, though. McCants, Hudson, and Hassell are all good role players, but the Wolves need Wally, Jaric, and Griffin to be offensive contributors to win.
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
NEW POST!
Yeah, it's another new post. My page actually is indexed by Google, which I found out yesterday much to my surprise, considering readership is a stable single-digit number. I would tell you to tell your friends, but that would just be sad.
One of my colleagues at the ESPN board started his own blog, and while he has a better name and reputation than me, you should still check this site occasionally on the off chance that I posted a new article.
Twins Rumors
The Yankees are definately not trading Cano for Hunter. Which, I must say, is OK in my book. Cano is not the type of bat that this team needs. Hunter is a good player, and would be a great player on the right team. Hunter is more valuable to the Yankees than he is to the Twins, but he's still more valuable to the Twins than Cano would be. If Hunter is traded, let's hope that the team does better than Cano. I'm still open to him being traded, but it has to be for the right guy.
Jim Thome rumors are heating up. One GM says that Thome is a huge risk, but I think it's time for this team to take a decent risk for once. Trade Lohse and a prospect and get Thome at a discount. Or better yet, get Delgado, who's a better lefthanded power threat and would thrive at the Dome. Rumor has it that the Fish want out of his contract, and a deal starting with Lohse and Ford could interest them.
These top-notch player rumors (much like the Soriano rumors of last July) are most likely overblown hype to keep people interested in the team. But a player like Delgado or a healthy Thome would transform this lineup much like Vlad did when he came to Anaheim. Any team with Minnesota's pitching (which had a good year, but Baker/Liriano could easily outperform Lohse/Mays) can make a quick transition from .500 to World Series with a lineup-altering bat. And with a healthy Torii, emerging Mauer, rebounding Morneau, and promising Bartlett and Cuddyer, this team could be much better even without a new face in the lineup.
Santana fuckjob
The Baseball Writers did it again. I can't understand how punishing a player for a crappy offense and bullpen performance in preserving his wins legitimizes this voting process. Aside from leading Colon in every significant stat except wins, Santana's team won more behind him. 24-9 compared to 22-11. That's a big difference, and after all, baseball is a team sport. Don't give me this bullshit about wins being more valuable than stats. Santana's team won more games when he pitched. And don't forget the fact that his team could only muster a single run in four of those losses. In only one loss did they score more than four runs.
Yeah, it's another new post. My page actually is indexed by Google, which I found out yesterday much to my surprise, considering readership is a stable single-digit number. I would tell you to tell your friends, but that would just be sad.
One of my colleagues at the ESPN board started his own blog, and while he has a better name and reputation than me, you should still check this site occasionally on the off chance that I posted a new article.
Twins Rumors
The Yankees are definately not trading Cano for Hunter. Which, I must say, is OK in my book. Cano is not the type of bat that this team needs. Hunter is a good player, and would be a great player on the right team. Hunter is more valuable to the Yankees than he is to the Twins, but he's still more valuable to the Twins than Cano would be. If Hunter is traded, let's hope that the team does better than Cano. I'm still open to him being traded, but it has to be for the right guy.
Jim Thome rumors are heating up. One GM says that Thome is a huge risk, but I think it's time for this team to take a decent risk for once. Trade Lohse and a prospect and get Thome at a discount. Or better yet, get Delgado, who's a better lefthanded power threat and would thrive at the Dome. Rumor has it that the Fish want out of his contract, and a deal starting with Lohse and Ford could interest them.
These top-notch player rumors (much like the Soriano rumors of last July) are most likely overblown hype to keep people interested in the team. But a player like Delgado or a healthy Thome would transform this lineup much like Vlad did when he came to Anaheim. Any team with Minnesota's pitching (which had a good year, but Baker/Liriano could easily outperform Lohse/Mays) can make a quick transition from .500 to World Series with a lineup-altering bat. And with a healthy Torii, emerging Mauer, rebounding Morneau, and promising Bartlett and Cuddyer, this team could be much better even without a new face in the lineup.
Santana fuckjob
The Baseball Writers did it again. I can't understand how punishing a player for a crappy offense and bullpen performance in preserving his wins legitimizes this voting process. Aside from leading Colon in every significant stat except wins, Santana's team won more behind him. 24-9 compared to 22-11. That's a big difference, and after all, baseball is a team sport. Don't give me this bullshit about wins being more valuable than stats. Santana's team won more games when he pitched. And don't forget the fact that his team could only muster a single run in four of those losses. In only one loss did they score more than four runs.
Friday, October 28, 2005
We're back
Sorry for the big lapse in posting (not that anyone reads this anyway) but I had problems with my Blogger account. Well, I'm back now and looking to get this site back on its feet. I'm going to try to do this more Gleeman-style, with more informality and less long articles.
First item of the day: Sox win.
Yeah, good job to them and all. It's pretty amazing how for some teams momentum is everything. I thought that the Astros pitching would neutralize the Sox offense, but the Sox got timely hits and pulled the sweep. Personally, I thought Joe Crede deserved the MVP for his game-winning homer and game-saving defensive plays at third.
Second item: Trade proposal
I floated this on the ESPN boards and on John Sickels's minor league site. I think this would be a great way for the Twins to improve their offense:
Sorry for the big lapse in posting (not that anyone reads this anyway) but I had problems with my Blogger account. Well, I'm back now and looking to get this site back on its feet. I'm going to try to do this more Gleeman-style, with more informality and less long articles.
First item of the day: Sox win.
Yeah, good job to them and all. It's pretty amazing how for some teams momentum is everything. I thought that the Astros pitching would neutralize the Sox offense, but the Sox got timely hits and pulled the sweep. Personally, I thought Joe Crede deserved the MVP for his game-winning homer and game-saving defensive plays at third.
Second item: Trade proposal
I floated this on the ESPN boards and on John Sickels's minor league site. I think this would be a great way for the Twins to improve their offense:
Twins send:
CF Torii Hunter
SP Anthony Swarzak
SP Jay Rainville
Yankees send:
2B Robinson Cano
3B Eric Duncan
Phillies send:
1B Jim Thome ($5M off his contract for next 3 years)
RP Ryan Madson
Twins receive:
1B Jim Thome at $7.5/9/9 million per year
2B Robinson Cano
Yankees receive:
CF Torii Hunter
RP Ryan Madson
Phillies receive:
SP Anthony Swarzak
SP Jay Rainville
3B Eric Duncan
The biggest problem that I see with this is that the Phillies aren't looking for prospects. Personally, I think that this package would overwhelm them and force them to make this deal. Swarzak and Rainville are premium B+ type pitching prospects, and Duncan is another premium prospect. The Phillies would have trouble getting any one of those guys for Thome and cash alone.
For the Yankees, I think this is a pretty fair deal. Cano looks like a solid MLB 2B, but not a superstar. Duncan is far from a sure thing. He'll probably be traded now while his value is very high. Yanks don't wait for many prospects. As for return, they get Hunter, a defensive CF who isn't a liability in the 7th spot of the order, where he'll probably bat. He's a clear upgrade over Lawton/Cabrera/Bernie. Madson shores up a weak bullpen and can serve as a setup man if Gordon leaves.
The Twins obviously come out very well in this trade. They have enough premium pitching to spare their top two pitching prospects, and Hunter has become an albatross of a contract. Cano is a huge offensive upgrade at 2B, allowing the regular infield to be Morneau, Cano, Bartlett, and Cuddyer. Thome plays DH and bats cleanup or third. However, Thome is injury-prone, old, and on the books for 25.5 million. His $10M in 2008 could look like Joe Mays's contract this year if he gets injured or doesn't perform.
Finally, props time:
Seth's got some great stuff on his blog this week, and so does Gleeman. They're both linked on the right, so check it out.
Monday, October 03, 2005
Awards: Cys Young
Historic.
AL Cy Young
The Finalists: Bartolo Colon, Mariano Rivera, Johan Santana
My Winner: Johan Santana (Colon runner up, Rivera third)
I first have to say that Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Cliff Lee, and Barry Zito all had great seasons and will garner votes for the award. For me, it's down to these three though. Santana wins because he is far and away the best starter in the American League. He has the best ERA, most strikeouts, best WHIP, lowest average against, and fewest hits allowed of any qualified AL starter. He leads Colon (and most other starters) in every major statistical category except wins. His otherwise mediocre team has gone 24-8 (.750%) when he starts – almost a third of their win total on the entire season. Colon's Angels have gone 22-11 behind him (.667%). Santana may not be leading the Twins to the postseason this year, but he is so much better than Colon that he deserves the award.
Rivera has had a fabulous year for the Yankees. However, he has blown four saves to go with his minuscule ERA, so that puts his contributions into perspective. Other closers have been just as efficient at saving games with higher ERAs. Rivera's season is a fantastic year for a closer. It's just not a Cy Young year. I think a closer has to come close to a Gagne-like season to earn the Cy when they pitch close to a third of the innings of an average starter. Face it, Santana and Colon have been more valuable than Rivera this year.
Who Will Win: Bartolo Colon
Voters will look at one stat: Wins. It's wrong that a pitcher like Santana who is likely to lead the league in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, average against, and VORP will fall to a lesser pitcher for a better offensive team.
NL Cy Young
The Finalists: Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Dontrelle Willis
My Winner: Roger Clemens
The NL is stacked with aces. Aside from my three finalists, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, John Smoltz, and John Patterson have all pitched Cy-like seasons this year. I've been wavering on this one for the past few weeks. Clemens had my vote won when he was sitting at 1.66 ERA. But when he went down and missed a start, I was ready to give it to Carp with his 2.31. Carp's last two outings have made me change my vote yet again. Clemens has been otherworldly this year. He's had two rough starts in his last four outings, but he's been pitching through injuries to help his team get to the postseason. This man is the ace of a staff with three legitimate Cy contenders. He's having, at age 43, one of the best season ever. D-Train and Carpenter are racking up the wins, but Clemens's twelve come with no run support in the midst of one of the historic seasons in the history of the game. The other two have nice numbers, but not historic.
Who Will Win: Roger Clemens
This may come as a surprise to many, but I truly think that the Rocket will pull it off. D-Train is out of the playoffs, Carpenter has looked horrible lately, bringing his overall numbers back to the field, and the rest of the list can't compete. Ask me a week ago, and I would have said Carpenter and a landslide.
________________________________
Note: Seth Stohs recently completed his top-fifty Twins prospects review. I suggest you check it out at his site.
Historic.
AL Cy Young
The Finalists: Bartolo Colon, Mariano Rivera, Johan Santana
My Winner: Johan Santana (Colon runner up, Rivera third)
I first have to say that Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Cliff Lee, and Barry Zito all had great seasons and will garner votes for the award. For me, it's down to these three though. Santana wins because he is far and away the best starter in the American League. He has the best ERA, most strikeouts, best WHIP, lowest average against, and fewest hits allowed of any qualified AL starter. He leads Colon (and most other starters) in every major statistical category except wins. His otherwise mediocre team has gone 24-8 (.750%) when he starts – almost a third of their win total on the entire season. Colon's Angels have gone 22-11 behind him (.667%). Santana may not be leading the Twins to the postseason this year, but he is so much better than Colon that he deserves the award.
Rivera has had a fabulous year for the Yankees. However, he has blown four saves to go with his minuscule ERA, so that puts his contributions into perspective. Other closers have been just as efficient at saving games with higher ERAs. Rivera's season is a fantastic year for a closer. It's just not a Cy Young year. I think a closer has to come close to a Gagne-like season to earn the Cy when they pitch close to a third of the innings of an average starter. Face it, Santana and Colon have been more valuable than Rivera this year.
Who Will Win: Bartolo Colon
Voters will look at one stat: Wins. It's wrong that a pitcher like Santana who is likely to lead the league in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, average against, and VORP will fall to a lesser pitcher for a better offensive team.
NL Cy Young
The Finalists: Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Dontrelle Willis
My Winner: Roger Clemens
The NL is stacked with aces. Aside from my three finalists, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, John Smoltz, and John Patterson have all pitched Cy-like seasons this year. I've been wavering on this one for the past few weeks. Clemens had my vote won when he was sitting at 1.66 ERA. But when he went down and missed a start, I was ready to give it to Carp with his 2.31. Carp's last two outings have made me change my vote yet again. Clemens has been otherworldly this year. He's had two rough starts in his last four outings, but he's been pitching through injuries to help his team get to the postseason. This man is the ace of a staff with three legitimate Cy contenders. He's having, at age 43, one of the best season ever. D-Train and Carpenter are racking up the wins, but Clemens's twelve come with no run support in the midst of one of the historic seasons in the history of the game. The other two have nice numbers, but not historic.
Who Will Win: Roger Clemens
This may come as a surprise to many, but I truly think that the Rocket will pull it off. D-Train is out of the playoffs, Carpenter has looked horrible lately, bringing his overall numbers back to the field, and the rest of the list can't compete. Ask me a week ago, and I would have said Carpenter and a landslide.
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Note: Seth Stohs recently completed his top-fifty Twins prospects review. I suggest you check it out at his site.
