Minnesota Twins Talk

2006-06-20T10:27:00.000-07:00

Twins Pitching Plans

There's a glut of pitching in this organization. The starters are starting to turn it around, and the bullpen has been a major strength (excepting Crain and Eyre) all year. What do you do moving forward?

Here's my plan:

2006 rotation:
As it stands: Santana, Liriano, Radke, Silva, Bonser

My 2006 rotation: Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Radke (trade Silva if he strings together a few good starts.)

My 2007 rotation: Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Durbin

Key rotation members moving forward:

Santana and Liriano are no-brainers.

Boof Bonser has a fairly ugly 5.48 ERA, but he's been getting unlucky. He's allowed a reasonable 25 hits in 23 IP and walked only 7, but an ungodly amount of his fly balls are turning into homers, and those hits have been strung together into big innings. That will settle down. The peripherals are nice: 3.00 K/BB, 8.22 K/9. Throwing a few too many pitches per inning, but that will settle down as well. I've been really impressed by his ability to throw the curveball in all counts. I didn't know what to expect of Bonser coming into this year, but I'm convinced now that he has a reasonable chance to be a #2 type (3.30-3.70 ERA, K/9 of around 7.50). If he can maintain the good strikeout numbers while remaining in the big leagues, he's going to be a valuable member of the rotation.

Scott Baker was very unlucky this year, but he's still got above-average stuff and immaculate control. Lost behind his 6.06 ERA was a 41:8 K/BB ratio and a 7.53 K/9, both gains over his 2005 numbers. I still think he projects as a similar pitcher as Bonser (3.30-3.70 ERA, K/9 of around 7.20) with slightly lower strikeout numbers and slightly better control.

Gotta give Durbin a shot in 2007 with the season he's having so far. I'm convinced that the best spot for him will eventually be in the bullpen, but he should be given a shot to be a member of the rotation first. If he can come all the way back from shoulder surgery, he could still profile as an ace. Most likely, however, his reduced strikeouts in AAA suggest that he's an average starter at best and would be better served coming out of the pen. He has the stuff to be an ace reliever, and I think pitching fewer innings would better utilize his two plus pitches (high 90s FB and good 12-6 curve), because his tertiary pitch is below average.

Pen:
As it stands: Nathan, Rincon, Reyes, Crain, Eyre, Lohse*
*Keeping spot warm for Guerrier

My 2006 pen: Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Reyes, Neshek, Eyre*
*Keeping spot warm for Guerrier

My 2007 pen: Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Neshek, LOOGY (Reyes if he keeps it up, otherwise AAA pitcher Ricky Barrett), Guerrier

Nathan and Rincon are no-brainers.

Crain has turned a corner. I honestly am more happy with the season he's having this year than his season last year. He's regained his strikeout pitch and has only walked 6 in 29 innings, both major improvements. K/BB is outstanding, GB/FB is off the charts, line drives are constant, and he hasn't given up that many homers. He's just been really unlucky. DIPS, which evens out BABIP, has him at a respectable 3.62. You gotta feel for a guy that's having 41.2% of balls put in play turn into hits, especially when nearly 3 of 4 of those balls is a grounder. If this year doesn't go straight to his head, Crain is a future relief ace. Trust me.

Neshek's just gotta be up. He's a filthy, filthy man, and his delivery is downright scary. And so much for the talk about lefties mash him. Including his early-year struggles, he's now holding lefties to a .768 OPS against. Righties? .429. To put that in perspective, Rondell White is sitting at .428. A 14.7 K/9 and only 12 walks in 49.1 innings shows he's got nothing left to prove. He's even striking out nearly 10 lefties per 9 innings against lefties.

Reyes is doing his best Eddie Guardado impersonation, but I fear he will collapse. Still, there's no clear organizational replacement, and he's not really a key pen member anyway. His CERA is 213% higher than his ERA, and his DIPS is 309% higher than his ERA (5.11 to 1.65), good for 8th most skewed DIPS to ERA ratio in the league. He's given up 3 homers in 16.1 innings, not a good sign, and walked too many. He's gotten lucky so far, and he's not a long-term solution.

Eyre is a replacement level reliever. His G/F ratio has been subpar for a guy touted as a groundball pitcher. His strikeouts have been lackluster. He deserves to be pitching at AAA once Guerrier gets healthy.

Guerrier is another key member of the pen. He's one of the better long relief men in the league, able to maintain a low ERA without striking out many because he limits homers and has decent control. He probably deserves an ERA more around 4.00 than low 3s, but he's still valuable.

Notable prospects:

Besides the trio of MLB-ready guys in Baker, Durbin, and Bonser, the Twins are loaded with high-ceiling arms.

My personal faves (in this order)

1- Matt Garza -- an awesome combination of stuff and control. He's one of those guys who seems to have a good feel for pitching. Another California college guy (albeit from Stanford) Mike Mussina comes to mind.

2- Glen Perkins -- his stuff has taken a leap forward recently, and since his breakout AFL performance he's been having a nearly dominant AA stint. Ceiling might be a 2005 Doug Davis. His control isn't what you'd expect of a Twins pitcher.

3- Anthony Swarzak -- Ignore the 4.57 ERA so far at Ft. Myers. He's got good control, good velocity, good stuff, good peripheral stats, and he's a 20-year-old at high A. Right on track for a high school draftee. One of my favorites for a long time, I had him pegged as a sleeper two years ago.

4- Eduardo Morlan -- my favorite sleeper. Another high school draftee, he's absolutely dominating the Midwest league. He features top-notch velocity and a devastating slider.

5- Kevin Slowey -- another college arm, he falls this far due to concerns about strikeout numbers holding up with advanced competition. He's absolutely destroying the FSL right now (92:7 K:BB) and he's got a good build for a pitcher and might have some projection left. He has a chance to be a special pitcher, but recent struggles of high-strikeout, low-stuff pitchers like Yusmeiro Petit and Chuck James give me reason to pause before listing him ahead of guys with better stuff like Morlan and Swarzak.

Don't sleep on: Brian Duensing, Kyle Waldrop, Jay Rainville (out for season), Justin Jones, Oswaldo Sosa.

2005-11-14T15:49:00.000-08:00

Kyle Lohse

Personally, I think we should trade Lohse. But the ignoramuses out there who think he has no trade value are kidding themselves.

Some argue that Lohse has had a lucky year this year. I disagree. Lohse BABIP (batting average on balls in play) ranked 80th of 93 qualified starting pitchers. While there's a great debate about whether pitchers can control their BABIP, it's clear that a lot of it has to do with luck (Roy Oswalt and Scott Kazmir had similar BABIPs and are both considered nearly impossible to hit).

Put this way, if Lohse had a lucky BABIP last year (say .258 like Horacio Ramirez), he could cut his H/9 from 10.63 to 9.27, his WHIP from 1.43 to 1.27, and his BAA from .299 to .259. This is unlikely to happen, but even a moderate swing in luck would render Lohse a 3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .270 BAA starter in the AL, and better in the NL.

2005-11-13T14:42:00.000-08:00

Cuddyer vs. Punto at second base

Career games at 2B
Cuddy 60
Punto 109

Career fielding % at 2B:
Cuddy .985
Punto .980

Career Zone Rating at 2B:
Cuddy .833
Punto .873

Career Range Factor at 2b:
Cuddy 4.63
Punto 5.25

Career Rate/Rate2 at 2B (League avg is 100):
Cuddy 102
Punto 101

Cuddyer is arguably a better defender than Punto at 2B. Offensively, there's no comparison. He'd better play there over Punto.

2005-11-10T17:53:00.000-08:00

Clemens was screwed.

1.87 ERA at 43. You can't say anything more than that. The guy deserved the award hands-down, but both Carpenter and D-Train finished ahead of him. Personally, I thought Dontrelle's claim to the Cy award was better than Carpenter's, mainly because of Carp's horrible last three starts.

Thome might waive his no-trade clause for Minny

Charlie Walters reported this in the Pioneer Press today. He also hinted that Thome might be had for 7 million a year. If this is the case, there's nothing to lose. Thome could hit 50 bombs in the Dome, or he could hit .207 in an injury-shortened season. But for seven million a year, he is a bargain. His troubles were mainly elbow-related last year, and his tender back will be served well by not playing the field as a DH. Thome is just one year removed from being an untradable top-ten player in the majors. The guy can slug for power, decent average, and gets on base better than anyone in the game besides Bonds and Berkman. 49, 52, 47, 42 homers in his last four full seasons. And he's not injury-proned, he got unlucky once. Get this guy.

T-Wolves shut down Lakers

Kobe Bryant is a flaming douchebag, and he takes way too many shots. Only Steve Francis takes worse shots than Bryant. The Wolves are looking decent at this early juncture in the season. They need Szczerbiak to step up his offensive game to be a contender, though. McCants, Hudson, and Hassell are all good role players, but the Wolves need Wally, Jaric, and Griffin to be offensive contributors to win.

2005-11-09T22:21:00.000-08:00

NEW POST!

Yeah, it's another new post. My page actually is indexed by Google, which I found out yesterday much to my surprise, considering readership is a stable single-digit number. I would tell you to tell your friends, but that would just be sad.

One of my colleagues at the ESPN board started his own blog, and while he has a better name and reputation than me, you should still check this site occasionally on the off chance that I posted a new article.

Twins Rumors

The Yankees are definately not trading Cano for Hunter. Which, I must say, is OK in my book. Cano is not the type of bat that this team needs. Hunter is a good player, and would be a great player on the right team. Hunter is more valuable to the Yankees than he is to the Twins, but he's still more valuable to the Twins than Cano would be. If Hunter is traded, let's hope that the team does better than Cano. I'm still open to him being traded, but it has to be for the right guy.

Jim Thome rumors are heating up. One GM says that Thome is a huge risk, but I think it's time for this team to take a decent risk for once. Trade Lohse and a prospect and get Thome at a discount. Or better yet, get Delgado, who's a better lefthanded power threat and would thrive at the Dome. Rumor has it that the Fish want out of his contract, and a deal starting with Lohse and Ford could interest them.

These top-notch player rumors (much like the Soriano rumors of last July) are most likely overblown hype to keep people interested in the team. But a player like Delgado or a healthy Thome would transform this lineup much like Vlad did when he came to Anaheim. Any team with Minnesota's pitching (which had a good year, but Baker/Liriano could easily outperform Lohse/Mays) can make a quick transition from .500 to World Series with a lineup-altering bat. And with a healthy Torii, emerging Mauer, rebounding Morneau, and promising Bartlett and Cuddyer, this team could be much better even without a new face in the lineup.

Santana fuckjob

The Baseball Writers did it again. I can't understand how punishing a player for a crappy offense and bullpen performance in preserving his wins legitimizes this voting process. Aside from leading Colon in every significant stat except wins, Santana's team won more behind him. 24-9 compared to 22-11. That's a big difference, and after all, baseball is a team sport. Don't give me this bullshit about wins being more valuable than stats. Santana's team won more games when he pitched. And don't forget the fact that his team could only muster a single run in four of those losses. In only one loss did they score more than four runs.

2005-10-28T21:45:00.000-07:00

We're back

Sorry for the big lapse in posting (not that anyone reads this anyway) but I had problems with my Blogger account. Well, I'm back now and looking to get this site back on its feet. I'm going to try to do this more Gleeman-style, with more informality and less long articles.

First item of the day: Sox win.

Yeah, good job to them and all. It's pretty amazing how for some teams momentum is everything. I thought that the Astros pitching would neutralize the Sox offense, but the Sox got timely hits and pulled the sweep. Personally, I thought Joe Crede deserved the MVP for his game-winning homer and game-saving defensive plays at third.

Second item: Trade proposal

I floated this on the ESPN boards and on John Sickels's minor league site. I think this would be a great way for the Twins to improve their offense:

Twins send:
CF Torii Hunter
SP Anthony Swarzak
SP Jay Rainville

Yankees send:
2B Robinson Cano
3B Eric Duncan

Phillies send:
1B Jim Thome ($5M off his contract for next 3 years)
RP Ryan Madson

Twins receive:
1B Jim Thome at $7.5/9/9 million per year
2B Robinson Cano

Yankees receive:
CF Torii Hunter
RP Ryan Madson

Phillies receive:
SP Anthony Swarzak
SP Jay Rainville
3B Eric Duncan

The biggest problem that I see with this is that the Phillies aren't looking for prospects. Personally, I think that this package would overwhelm them and force them to make this deal. Swarzak and Rainville are premium B+ type pitching prospects, and Duncan is another premium prospect. The Phillies would have trouble getting any one of those guys for Thome and cash alone.

For the Yankees, I think this is a pretty fair deal. Cano looks like a solid MLB 2B, but not a superstar. Duncan is far from a sure thing. He'll probably be traded now while his value is very high. Yanks don't wait for many prospects. As for return, they get Hunter, a defensive CF who isn't a liability in the 7th spot of the order, where he'll probably bat. He's a clear upgrade over Lawton/Cabrera/Bernie. Madson shores up a weak bullpen and can serve as a setup man if Gordon leaves.

The Twins obviously come out very well in this trade. They have enough premium pitching to spare their top two pitching prospects, and Hunter has become an albatross of a contract. Cano is a huge offensive upgrade at 2B, allowing the regular infield to be Morneau, Cano, Bartlett, and Cuddyer. Thome plays DH and bats cleanup or third. However, Thome is injury-prone, old, and on the books for 25.5 million. His $10M in 2008 could look like Joe Mays's contract this year if he gets injured or doesn't perform.

Finally, props time:

Seth's got some great stuff on his blog this week, and so does Gleeman. They're both linked on the right, so check it out.

2005-10-03T21:01:00.000-07:00

Awards: Cys Young

Historic.

AL Cy Young

The Finalists: Bartolo Colon, Mariano Rivera, Johan Santana

My Winner: Johan Santana (Colon runner up, Rivera third)
I first have to say that Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Cliff Lee, and Barry Zito all had great seasons and will garner votes for the award. For me, it's down to these three though. Santana wins because he is far and away the best starter in the American League. He has the best ERA, most strikeouts, best WHIP, lowest average against, and fewest hits allowed of any qualified AL starter. He leads Colon (and most other starters) in every major statistical category except wins. His otherwise mediocre team has gone 24-8 (.750%) when he starts – almost a third of their win total on the entire season. Colon's Angels have gone 22-11 behind him (.667%). Santana may not be leading the Twins to the postseason this year, but he is so much better than Colon that he deserves the award.

Rivera has had a fabulous year for the Yankees. However, he has blown four saves to go with his minuscule ERA, so that puts his contributions into perspective. Other closers have been just as efficient at saving games with higher ERAs. Rivera's season is a fantastic year for a closer. It's just not a Cy Young year. I think a closer has to come close to a Gagne-like season to earn the Cy when they pitch close to a third of the innings of an average starter. Face it, Santana and Colon have been more valuable than Rivera this year.

Who Will Win: Bartolo Colon
Voters will look at one stat: Wins. It's wrong that a pitcher like Santana who is likely to lead the league in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, average against, and VORP will fall to a lesser pitcher for a better offensive team.

NL Cy Young

The Finalists: Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Dontrelle Willis

My Winner: Roger Clemens
The NL is stacked with aces. Aside from my three finalists, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, John Smoltz, and John Patterson have all pitched Cy-like seasons this year. I've been wavering on this one for the past few weeks. Clemens had my vote won when he was sitting at 1.66 ERA. But when he went down and missed a start, I was ready to give it to Carp with his 2.31. Carp's last two outings have made me change my vote yet again. Clemens has been otherworldly this year. He's had two rough starts in his last four outings, but he's been pitching through injuries to help his team get to the postseason. This man is the ace of a staff with three legitimate Cy contenders. He's having, at age 43, one of the best season ever. D-Train and Carpenter are racking up the wins, but Clemens's twelve come with no run support in the midst of one of the historic seasons in the history of the game. The other two have nice numbers, but not historic.

Who Will Win: Roger Clemens
This may come as a surprise to many, but I truly think that the Rocket will pull it off. D-Train is out of the playoffs, Carpenter has looked horrible lately, bringing his overall numbers back to the field, and the rest of the list can't compete. Ask me a week ago, and I would have said Carpenter and a landslide.
________________________________
Note: Seth Stohs recently completed his top-fifty Twins prospects review. I suggest you check it out at his site.

2005-10-02T22:20:00.000-07:00

Awards: Rolaids Relief Man

AL Relief Man

Could a former Expo actually win something?

The Finalists: Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Bob Wickman

My Winner: Mariano Rivera (Rodriguez runner up, Nathan third, Wickman fourth)
No contest. Nathan, K-Rod, and Wickman have been great. Rivera has been awesome. Best save percentage in the AL, more strikeouts than innings pitched, ERA more than one run less than K-Rod's. Honorable mention goes to BJ Ryan, Danys Baez, and Huston Street.

Who Will Win: Mariano Rivera
As I said, no contest.

NL Relief Man

The Finalists: Chad Cordero, Todd Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Brad Lidge, Billy Wagner

My Winner: Billy Wagner (Lidge runner up, Cordero third, Hoffman fourth, Jones fifth
Cordero has just blown too many saves. He's got so many because his team has no offense and usually wins by just a few runs. Wagner has flat-out dominated this year. He's got the lowest ERA (1.46) of a closer in the NL, a K/9 of 9.70, a dominant .86 WHIP. He's only blown three saves on the year.

The other four are having tremendous seasons. Lidge is putting up better K numbers than K-Rod as usual, and has blown only three saves, while Cordero has racked up 47 saves with an ERA of below two; he's blown seven opportunities. Jones is having a career-resurrecting season with an ERA of below two. His strikeout numbers aren't in the same league as the others, though.

Who Will Win: Chad Cordero
Just like the Cy Young, voters rarely look past the first number, in this case number of saves. 47 with the tiny ERA will attract enough votes.

2005-10-01T22:23:00.000-07:00

Executive of the Year

Moneyball

The Finalists: Mark Shapiro (Indians), Billy Beane (Athletics), Jim Bowden (Nationals)

My Winner: Billy Beane (Shapiro runner up, Bowden third)
This year, he did the seemingly impossible: turn a rebuilding effort into a potential division winner. Trading away both Hudson and Mulder in the offseason seemed like a white flag at the time, but Beane managed to net Dan Haren (who was just signed to a four-year contract) and Kiko Calero, as well as building blocks for the future like Daric Barton and Dan Meyer. His rookies struggled at first, but came together to compete for a division title.

Shapiro's Indians are going to be solid on both sides of the ball for years to come thanks to his shrewd trades. Bowden took a pathetic Expos team and turned it into a competitive Nationals squad. His Preston Wilson trade worked out well for the club, but their lack of talent and resources kept them out of the playoffs in the end.

Who Will Win: Mark Shapiro
Beane did a better job this year, but many baseball sources despise him and his stat-based style of creating a team. Shapiro has put his team in an excellent position, resurrecting the careers of Kevin Millwood, Rafael Betancourt, and Scott Sauerbeck in the process. The Bartolo Colon trade is really working out for them – Grady Sizemore is a future star in centerfield and Cliff Lee has been Zito-esque. Shapiro is somewhat deserving of the award, but Beane had a better year. Since Beane is a such polarizing figure, Shapiro will win.

2005-09-29T22:00:00.000-07:00

Awards: Manager of the Year

AL Manager of the Year

The Finalists: Ken Macha (Athletics), Joe Torre (Yankees), Eric Wedge (Indians)

My Winner: Eric Wedge (Torre runner up, Macha third)
What a difference a month makes. Ozzie Guillen of the White Sox would have been the consensus pick back then; now he's struggling to make the playoffs and has catapulted off of my list. The Indians' resurgence is due largely to his skillful handling of his young stars. Pronk, Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and gang have a bright future with Wedge at the helm.

Macha dug the A's out of an early-season slump to contend for the division and wildcard, but they look to have fallen short. Torre's Yankee turnaround is remarkable given the club's woes at the All-Star break. Still, Wedge should win this hands-down.

Who Will Win: Eric Wedge
The Indians are baseball's best story. And Wedge deserves the award.

NL Manager of the Year

The Finalists: Bobby Cox (Braves), Phil Garner (Astros), Charlie Manuel (Phillies), Frank Robinson (Nationals)

My Winner: Bobby Cox (Manuel runner up, Robinson third, Garner fourth)
This is like predicting Greg Maddux to win a Gold Glove; it's your best bet every time. Cox has won the award seven times (six with the Braves), including the last three years. And Cox's has done it again, molding a group of select veterans and young players into a division winner.

Manuel has turned the early-slumping of the Phillies into a wildcard and onetime division contender, while Garner's 'Stros came back from 15 games under .500 to become the wildcard favorite. Robinson took a ragtag Expos squad and transformed it into the competitive Nationals. All three had excellent seasons, but Cox was better.

Who Will Win: Bobby Cox
See above.

2005-09-28T21:55:00.000-07:00

Season Awards: Rookies of the Year

Is Huston my winner?

The end of the 2005 season is approaching, and besides the playoffs, rampant speculation regarding the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Rolaid's Relief Man, Manager of the Year, and Executive of the Year awards are the major discussion point. During the next five days, I will post on each award, which will include my perceived leading candidates, my picks, and who I think will actually win the award.

Today, we'll start with the rookies.

AL Rookie of the Year

The Finalists: Joe Blanton, Gustavo Chacin, Scott Kazmir, Huston Street

My Winner: Gustavo Chacin (Kazmir runner up, Blanton third, Street fourth)

Chacin's Blue Jays have played 76 games against four of the most formidable offenses in the game: the loaded Yanks, slugging Red Sox, juiced-up Orioles, and emerging Devil Rays. Chacin has held his own against this gauntlet of sluggers, emerging as the number-one starter – after Halladay went down – for a .500 baseball team. Blanton and Kazmir struggled early in the year; no such trouble for Chacin, who has been something that you rarely see in young starters: consistent.

Blanton has been effective down the stretch for a playoff contender, and Kazmir has dazzled and dominated recently, but neither have the consistency to be my ROY.

Street deserves mention as a Relief Man as well as ROY candidate. He's been stellar this year; 21 saves and an ERA of under two. But he was closer for only half the year, and blew his share of saves as a middle reliever. His value to the A's is much less than Chacin's value as a number one starter in the AL East.

Who Will Win: Huston Street
Just a gut feeling. He's an elite MLB closer as a rookie, while Chacin was merely an above-average starter. Street has the numbers, I just don't think his half-season of closing was more impressive than Chacin's overall consistency in a tougher division on pitchers.

NL Rookie of the Year

The Finalists: Zach Duke, Jeff Francoeur, Ryan Howard, Willy Taveras

My Winner: Ryan Howard (Francoeur runner up, Duke third, Taveras fourth)
In a similar number of at bats, Howard has more homers, more discipline, more RBI, and is leading his team's charge to the playoffs. Meanwhile, Francoeur had a great start after his callup, is a great defensive asset, but is slumping lately and is notorious for his low walk rate. He's not leading his team, Smoltz and the Jones brothers are. Both are excellent cornerstones for the future, but for this year, Howard is the bigger contributor.

Duke has been brilliant in a small sample size, but a midseason callup and a long DL stint won't help his chances. Taveras is the only full-season rookie in consideration, and he's a fast, exciting player. He just hasn't put up the numbers to warrant the selection.

Who Will Win: Jeff Francoeur
This is a good choice, too. I think voters will find it hard to forget his sheer dominance when he first came up, and the fact that he's already one of the best outfield arms in the league won't hurt. I'll understand if either Howard or Francoeur take the award; both have earned it in some respect.

2005-09-27T16:46:00.000-07:00

Cy Time

Who gets it?

Johan Santana should be the American League Cy Young Winner. He leads the league in strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings, WHIP, batting average against, adjusted (DIPS) ERA, component ERA (by a full run), and opponent OPS. He's second in ERA, 7th in innings, T-8 in wins, T-4 in CG, 5th in win percentage.

No American League pitcher has dominated like Santana this year.

Let's dismiss the notion that Santana lack of wins makes him less valuable than Bartolo Colon. In Santana's 31 starts, the Twins have gone 23-8, winning 72.4% of games. The Angels have gone 21-11 in Colon's 32 starts, a 65.6% win ratio.

Colon has gotten only 4 no-decisions on the year, and only ONE when his team won. Santana has gotten NINE no-decisions when his team has won, and only one when they lost. In other words, the Twins offense has screwed Santana, while the Angels' bats have protected Colon from losing more games.

Personally, I think this is a two-horse race: Santana vs. Colon. And Colon simply doesn't have the numbers to deserve this award. A quick stat comparison:

Stat	Santana	Colon
W-L	14-7	20-8
Team W-L	23-8	21-11
ERA	2.98	3.51
WHIP	.97	1.15
K	223	154
H	171	210
BB	41	41
IP	218.7	217.7
BAA	.212	.254
K/BB	5.44	3.76
K/9	9.22	6.32
Opp. OPS	.595	6.92
DIPS ERA	2.89	3.85
Component ERA	2.15	3.14
Win Shares	19.6	19.1
VORP	66.4	49.4

Santana leads every important statistic except wins. His team wins behind him more than Colon's does. Sabermetric ERA stats show that Santana's adjusted stats simply blow Colon out of the water. Johan has been the best pitcher in the American League this year. He deserves a second Cy Young award.

2005-09-25T20:13:00.000-07:00

What's the Problem?

VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player. It's supposed to be a measure of how valuable a player is to his club. A VORP of 0 means that the player provides no more offensive production than a "replacement level player." Which is commonly defined as: Jason Tyner. Let's check out VORPs for the Twins position players and pitchers and see how they match up.

Player	VORP	Position	Rank*
Justin Morneau	8.1	1B	19
Luis Rodriguez	1.9	2B	17
Nick Punto	-2.4	2B	36
Michael Cuddyer	12.8	3B	9
Joe Mauer	42.3	C	2
Torii Hunter	23.9	CF	5
Lew Ford	13.4	CF	9
Matt LeCroy	15.1	DH	8
Shannon Stewart	9.5	LF	14
Jacque Jones	18.2	RF	10
Jason Bartlett	5.1	SS	15

*Among AL players of the same position

Ew. From this, only Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter are top-five players in value to their team at any position. No wonder the Twins can't score.

Now for the pitchers:

Player	VORP	SP/RP	Rank*
Johan Santana	66.5	SP	4
Carlos Silva	39.4	SP	26
Brad Radke	32.4	SP	47
Kyle Lohse	30.2	SP	56
Jesse Crain	24.8	RP	75
Juan Rincon	21.5	RP	100
Joe Nathan	20.6	RP	109
Matt Guerrier	15.0	RP	142
Scott Baker	11.7	SP	183
J.C. Romero	9.3	RP	219
Terry Mulholland	6.1	RP	264
Travis Bowyer	3.9	RP	298
Francisco Liriano	-2.1	SP	493
Joe Mays	-5.9	SP	584 (of 650)

*Among SP and RP in all of baseball

Nine pitchers are more valuable than Shannon Stewart. Ten than Morneau. Only Johan is more valuable than Mauer. Mays is horrible.

2005-09-24T13:43:00.000-07:00

Fantasy: How to Identify a Breakout Pitcher

Sleeper

I've come up with a formula to identify a breakout starter from his previous year's statistics. Using this formula, I would have advised readers to draft Andy Pettitte, AJ Burnett, Mark Prior, John Patterson, Chris Capuano, Erik Bedard, and Noah Lowry this year. That's a heckuva pitching staff if you can get it, especially considering Patterson, Capuano, Bedard, and Lowry could have been snagged in very late rounds. Of course, the method has its flaws. I would have been more high on Joaquin Benoit than Lowry using this predictor.

Well, let's get into the nitty-gritty of the formula.

To qualify as a potential breakout pitcher, the pitcher has to fulfill this criteria in the previous year: between 80 and 140 innings pitched and a K/9 of greater than 7. And you have to expect that they will be a SP the next year, not an RP.

There are five types of pitchers that usually fulfill these categories. First are young starters who get a midseason callup - think Dontrelle 2003. Second are swingmen who get many spot starts - like Johan Santana 2003. Third are young pitchers who get few starts - John Patterson 2004. Forth are veterans who pitch the second half of the season after missing the first due to injury - Andy Pettitte 2004. Finally, you have the veterans who get injured and miss the second half of the season from injury - Wade Miller 2004.

Since history tells us young starters, converted swingmen, and veterans pitching the second half of the season are more likely to rebound, we will give them a bonus multiplier of 1.5. Players who went down with a season-ending injury get a multiplier of .9 because they are less attractive. Guys like Patterson are hard to give a rating, because he's young but went down with an injury. I gave him the young pitcher bonus of 1.5 because he was coddled after his injury in 2004; it wasn' t really "season-ending." These types of situations are judgment calls.

Here's the formula: (K9 / BAA) * BONUS * 1.5 = P-RATE

P-RATE stands for Pitcher Recognizing and Testing Equation

A P-RATE of greater than 90 means that the pitcher is almost a sure thing to break out, barring injuries. A P-RATE of 70-89 is a solid sleeper pick. A P-RATE of 60-69 could go either way. And don't mess with a P-RATE of less than 60; it's just not worth it.

Let's look at these guys who qualify as breakout pitchers from their 2004 stats, and how they fared in 2005. I'll throw some busts as well to see if the formula can predict busts.

I'll use another proprietary equation called P-FARE (Pitcher FAntasy Rating Equation) to evaluate their 2005 performances so far. This doesn't include wins, which are important fantasy stats, but aren't correlated well with the other numbers. Anything over 100 is excellent, anything over 80 is good, anything over 60 is well above average. MLB league average is 30-40.

P-FARE is calculated as: ((K * K9) / (ERA + 4)) * ((IP + 1000) / 2000)

Pitcher	IP	K	K/9	BAA	ERA	Bonus	P-RATE	P-FARE
Mark Prior	118.7	139	10.54	.251	4.02	1.5	94.47	115.14
Andy Pettitte	83	79	8.57	.226	3.90	1.5	85.28	98.57
AJ Burnett	120	113	8.48	.231	3.68	1.5	82.55	104.5
John Patterson	98.3	99	9.06	.260	5.03	1.5	78.44	108.85
Jorge Sosa	99.3	94	8.52	.259	5.53	1.5	74.01	60.46*
Chris Capuano	88.3	80	8.15	.269	4.99	1.5	68.2	68.52
Joaquin Benoit	103	95	8.30	.279	5.68	1.5	66.94	34.9**
Erik Bedard	137.3	121	7.93	.270	4.59	1.5	66.10	66.98*
Noah Lowry	92	72	7.04	.259	3.82	1.5	61.19	71.97
Orlando Hernandez	84.7	84	8.93	.230	3.30	.9	52.39	34.25*
Kerry Wood	140	144	9.26	.244	3.72	.9	51.22	44.37**
Wade Miller	88.7	74	7.51	.228	3.35	.9	44.46	33.33*

*Adjusted to 180 IP for comparison
**Not adjusted, because used primarily as a reliever

The formula worked exceptionally well to predict breakout starting pitchers. Watch out for these guys next year: Aaron Heilman, Joaquin Benoit (again), Seth McClung, Robinson Tejeda, Ezequiel Estacio, and Kyle Davies.

Here are their P-RATEs using this year's stats so far:

Pitcher	IP	K	K/9	BAA	ERA	Bonus	P-RATE
Aaron Heilman	103.3	102	8.89	.228	3.31	1.5	87.70
Joaquin Benoit	83.7	75	8.06	.210	3.76	1.5	86.41
Robinson Tejeda	85.7	72	7.56	.218	3.57	1.5	78.04
Seth McClung	101.3	88	7.82	.256	7.11	1.5	68.72
Ezequiel Estacio	75	63	7.56	.309	5.76	1.5	55.05
Kyle Davies	79.3	57	6.47	.279	4.88	1.5	52.17

2005-09-23T22:53:00.000-07:00

Top Ten Reasons the Twins Lose

How can an offense be as consistently bad as ours? Here's a top ten list.

1) Jason Tyner - a 28-year-old AAA player who washed out of Tampa freakin' Bay and holds a lifetime OPS of .599. Excellent choice for leadoff man, Gardy.

2) Nick Punto - not only does he hit .240, but he won't get on base more than 30% of the time. It's good to have speed at the top of the lineup, except when that speed comes with a .621 lifetime OPS and gets caught stealing 37% of the time, well below break-even rate. Oh, and he's 28. This is his "prime." Gardy apparently thinks that this is a good choice for the two hole because he'll never get on base and will likely get thrown out stealing if he does.

3) Joe Mauer - not hitting homers like he was last year, but maybe it's because he gets about one good pitch to hit per night. A used condom would provide more protection than this lineup.

4) Matthew LeCroy - Contreras is righthanded, right? Just checking, because LeCroy hits .233 against righties with one HR per 43 at bats. This is your cleanup hitter against a righthander? Good call, Gardy.

5) Jacque Jones - he would swing at a pitchout if the ump would let him. Jones handles breaking and offspeed pitches like Michael Jackson handles small children. Which is to say, poorly. Can't blame management on playing him here though. A .839 OPS against righties this year is one of the best on the team.

6) Michael Cuddyer - get the man some playing time. Just make it at third or second, where he can actually contribute next year.

7) Justin Morneau - for as bad as he's looked this year, Justin has made some strides lately. He still has a decent walk rate, and the slugging percentage is lower than expected, but not horrible.

8) Terry Tiffee - thank God he's a switch hitter. It's comforting to know that we'll get the same, consistent .215 with no power and no patience from both sides of the plate. Remind me why Ford isn't playing in the outfield and Cuddyer isn't at 3B instead of Stiffee? Oh, that's right, because Gardenhire has it out for Ford. Are Ford's couple of mental errors worth having this black hole in the lineup? At least Gardy has Tiffee's back.

9) Jason Bartlett - normally, I wouldn't advocate putting a slumping .245 hitter in the 2 hole. Then again, not many teams have a second hitter as gawdawful as Nick Punto. Punto seems content to work the count to his advantage before fouling off four or five potential ball fours, then striking out on another ball. At least Bartlett will take a walk every once and a while. Oh, and he's 3-3 on stolen base attempts.

10) Mike Ryan - good thing Gardy took Cuddyer out, considering Cuddy has a better AVG, OBP and SLG against righties than Ryan. Ryan at least had the Twins's only RBI. You have to wonder why Ryan came to bat for Cuddyer in the first place, especially given that Cuddyer had his best offensive game of the season two days ago in Oakland.

Hmm...That top ten list looks suspiciously like Gardy's lineup card.

2005-09-21T16:22:00.000-07:00

Billy Beane vs. Terry Ryan

These two are probably the most successful small-market general managers. What makes them so good, and how do they match up with one other? An in-depth comparison:

Twins GM Terry Ryan and former Twin, Oakland GM Billy Beane

	Terry Ryan	Billy Beane
Began position	1995	1997
Scouting Philosophy	Traditional	Stat-based
Winning Years	4	6
Divison Titles	3	3
AL Wildcards	0	1
Avg. Payroll	$25,616,450	$35,218,448
Draft Highlights	Doug Mientkiewicz (round 5 1995) Jacque Jones (round 2 1996) Justin Morneau (round 3 1999) Joe Mauer (round 1 2000) Jason Kubel (round 12 2000) Jesse Crain (round 2 2002) Scott Baker (round 2 2003)	Tim Hudson (round 6 1997) Mark Mulder (round 1 1998) Barry Zito (round 1 1999) Rich Harden (round 17 2000) Bobby Crosby (round 1 2001) Jeremy Bonderman (round 1 2001) Joe Blanton (round 1 2002) Huston Street (round 1 2004)
Trade Highlights	1996: Dave Hollins for David Ortiz 1997: Roberto Kelly for Joe Mays 1998: Chuck Knoblauch for Christian Guzman, Eric Milton, Brian Buchanan, Danny Mota 1999: Jared Camp, cash for Johan Santana 1999: Rick Aguilera and Scott Downs for Kyle Lohse and Jay Ryan 2000: Hector Carrasco for Lew Ford 2002: Brian Buchanan for Jason Bartlett 2003: A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser 2003: Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart 2003: Eric Milton for Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, Bobby Korecky	1999: Billy Taylor for Jason Isringhausen, Greg McMichael 2001: Ben Grieve, Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch for Johnny Damon, Cory Lidle, Mark Ellis 2001: Miguel Cairo for Eric Hinske 2001: Todd Belitz, Mario Encarnacion, Jose Ortiz for Jermaine Dye 2001: Eric Hinske, Justin Miller for Billy Koch 2002: Luis Vizcaino for Justin Duchscherer 2002: Jon Adkins for Ray Durham 2002: Marshall MacDougal for Ricardo Rincon 2002: Billy Koch and Neal Cotts for Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson, Joe Valentine, cash 2004: Mark Mulder for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, Daric Barton
Amateur Free Agent Highlights	1995: Luis Rivas 1996: Juan Rincon 1997: Grant Balfour 1999: Bobby Kielty	1997: Angel Berroa 2000: Jairo Garcia
Waiver Claims	1998: Hector Carrasco 2000: Casey Blake 2003: Matt Guerrier 2003: Aaron Fultz	1998: Aaron Small 2003: Marco Scutaro

Beane's biggest strength is the draft. Six of his number one picks have become major league stars (Mulder, Zito, Crosby, Bonderman, Blanton, Street), compared to only one for Terry Ryan's Twins (Joe Mauer). The Twins have a history of screwing up first round picks under Terry Ryan.

Ryan's best asset is his shrewd trading. When the Twins acquire an single-A-ball prospect for an established major leaguer, they usually get it right. David Ortiz, Joe Mays, Lew Ford, and Jason Bartlett are perfect examples. The Twins also make the most out of payroll dumping trades, most infamously in the trade that sent Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski. Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva are two others acquired in payroll-dump trades.

Both GM's have signed good talent as amateur free agents, and both have acquired nice players through waivers.

The big thing differentiating Ryan and Beane is organizational philosophy. Beane looks at undervalued stats such as on-base percentage when acquiring players. He operates much like a stockbroker, trying to exploit market trends to create a winning team. Oakland is a patient, powerful team offensively, and usually has a good rotation and bullpen. The Athletics rarely steal a base; Beane understands that stolen bases are overvalued and often hurt more than help. The farm system isn't brimming with talent, but it isn't bare, either.

Ryan and the Twins opt for the more traditional approach. Scouting is based on a mixture of instinct, stats, perceived potential, and athleticism. The Twins are aggressive on the basepaths and in the batter's box; they draw a decent amount of walks, but not exhorbant amounts. The team hasn't had a legitimate power threat since the early 1990s. On the mound, the Twins preach control, control, control. They have the fewest walks allowed in the MLB, and it's not even close. Most of the starters are ground-ball pitchers who strike out less than 5 batters per 9 innings pitched. The Twins's minor-league system is brimming with talented pitching but sorely lacks premium hitting prospects.

I think it's no coincidence that Terry Ryan makes better trades than Beane, and that Beane has more successful drafts. The Twins's organizational philosophy is to look more at athleticism and potential than performance. The A's look at performance first, potential second. The A's draft many surer-thing college players, while the Twins often gamble with high-school talent. So far, it hasn't panned out very well.

On the flip side, Beane's philosophy hurts him when dealing. He often gives up on young talent that doesn't show rapid results - Jeremy Bonderman and Angel Berroa come to mind. Ryan, on the other hand, is more patient and reluctant to trade youth. He actually stockpiles it, often trading established majore leaguers for low-level prospects. And the Twins are second-to-none in scouting the minor leagues for sleeper prospects. Ryan takes exercises more patience with and trades for more youth than Beane, so the Twins are able to get more long-term pieces through trade than the Athletics.

2005-09-21T14:28:00.000-07:00

Mulholland

Old Man Mullet

On Dark Star's show the other night, Terry Ryan said something to the effect of, "No one understands what Mulholland means to this team." He rattled off the typical list of intangibles like leadership, veteran presence, etc., before saying the tired old line, "He keeps us close in ballgames and gives us a chance to win."

So I decided to find out how many games the Twins have won that Mulholland has pitched in.

They Twins are 13-34 in his 47 games pitched.

But we have to factor in that he's a mopup man, so he gets most of his innings after the game has basically been decided. So I'll dig a bit deeper.

The mark of a successful long-relief man is not making the big deficit even worse. Mullholland hasn't allowed an earned run in 22 out of the 34 Twins losses that he has pitched in.

Now let's see how many times the Twins have lost because Mulholland hasn't kept them in the game. These are Twins losses in which Mulholland pitched and gave up the same or more runs as the margin of defeat.

There are only two, Mulholland's two losses on the season. He isn't nearly the gas can I thought he was.

Terry is also decent with runners on base. Of 26 inherited runners on the year, only seven have scored.

We can statistically conclude that Mulholland has been a decent long relief guy this year. Most of his runs are allowed in blowout victories and defeats, so they don't affect the teams win/loss record dramatically. I'd rather see Balfour or Bowyer up with the club next year, though. Since Mulholland isn't used as a LOOGY, his lefty status isn't a huge plus factor.

2005-09-20T20:44:00.000-07:00

Stuff

Filthy.

That's what Liriano has right now. Disgustingly good stuff. Better control will come; I fully believe this because Rick Anderson might be the best control coach in the history of baseball. Liriano didn't walk too many at AAA or in his first three appearances. This is a blip on the radar screen. Without the many walks, Liriano only gives up 2 or 3 runs.

2005-09-20T16:11:00.000-07:00

Trade relievers

The Twins play .800 ball when scoring 4+ runs. That's a team on the verge of something special. A power-hitting corner OF, 2B, 3B, or DH would improve this team immeasurably. Teams would have to pitch to Joe Mauer, and struggling youngsters like Morneau wouldn't have to deal with the incredible pressure of carrying the lineup.

But how can they get power? Free agency looks bad this year. There are a few potential impact sluggers that could be in the price range, like Frank Thomas, Erubiel Durazo, or Juan Gonzalez. These guys are no sure thing, and would likely cost the team millions.

I propose trading a package highlighting Juan Rincon or Jesse Crain for a lineup-changing slugger. There are lots of teams looking for a long-term solution at closer -- the Mets, Braves, and Marlins come to mind.

Cliff Floyd, Chipper Jones, and Luis Castillo are three players the Twins could target with a Rincon/pitching prospect package.

2005-09-20T10:37:00.000-07:00

A good loss?

A good loss. That's the best way to describe the game today. Zito is one of the best lefty starters in baseball, and he made the Twins look silly through the first 6+. On the bright side, Mauer got a hit off of him, which is quite an accomplishment for a young lefthanded hitter. Morneau actually managed to take the ball the other way a few times, which is progress.

And best of all, the Twins made a good run at the end, torching Yabu and Huston Street. The team didn't let a tough matchup and an early deficit put them out of the game.

Strike three

Observations:

Jacque Jones was the final out in three innings, including a rally-killing grounder to end the game with a runner on first. This guy should not be resigned.
After striking out in the first, Morneau had himself quite a game. He showed that his opposite-field hitting is coming around with a groundout to short and a base hit to left, and turned on a Kiko Calero pitch for a solo home run.
Jason Bartlett is showing that he can field at a major league level.
Radke's fastball is straight and slow. Gardenhire and Anderson have him "establish" it too much early, leading to lots of homers in the first and second innings.
This team cannot hit lefthanders at all. They make Zito look like Cy Young winner Zito, and Ricardo Rincon look like Billy Wagner.

2005-09-19T22:55:00.000-07:00

Radke and Lohse

For all the flak Kyle Lohse catches, he is a damn good pitcher. He's putting up a solid season following his putrid 2004 campaign. The kid is only 26, and while I don't think he's a future ace, this guy could be a second starter on a lot of ballclubs. But on the Twins? If you still consider Brad Radke the second best starter on the club, then Lohse is close.

Pitcher	W-L	IP	ERA	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	WHIP	BAA	HR	Age	VORP*	Salary
Kyle Lohse	9-12	166.7	4.16	80	40	4.32	2.00	1.41	.297	21	26	28.9 (56th in MLB)	2.4M
Brad Radke	9-12	200.7	4.04	117	23	5.25	5.09	1.18	.272	33	33	33.7 (42nd in MLB)**	9M

*Value over replacement player, as calculated by Baseball Prospectus
**VORP stat for Radke doesn't include tonight's shelling.

There is no doubt that Radke is the better pitcher, but is he 6.6 million dollars better?

2005-09-18T23:09:00.000-07:00

Position Player Outlook

The Twins can't score this year. In the future, this should change. Consider:

Three of the best young players in the game today will anchor the middle of the lineup for years to come. Mauer and Kubel have legitimate .300, 30 HR potential, and Morneau is arguably the best power prospect in the game. Health and finances permitting, this 1-2-3 punch will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers well into the next decade. Jason Bartlett is no slouch at short, either. He's projected as a high average guy with plus speed who can take a few walks.

Joe Mauer should anchor the Twins' lineup for years to come.

A couple of solid young players are just reaching MLB maturity. Lew Ford's (28) combination of speed, power, and eye makes him the heir apparent to Shannon Stewart's leadoff spot and Michael Cuddyer (26) is finally in an everyday role with a chance to confirm his billing as a quality player.

The longtime leader of the offense -- Torii Hunter -- is 29 and was having a good season before going down. He's taking more walks and having longer at-bats than at any time in his career. He's not going anywhere soon.

The Twins have big holes at 2B, 3B, and DH. But at 29, Matthew LeCroy could still be the powerful righthanded bat the Twins expected when they took him as a sandwich pick in 1997. Or Jason Kubel could slide over to DH if the Twins feel his knee isn't up to playing in the outfield, allowing Stewart or Jones to stay, or a prospect like Denard Span, Alex Romero, or Doug Deeds to join the outfield once they're ready. Any number of minor leaguers (Garrett Jones comes to mind) or this year's compensatory selection Henry Sanchez could also win the spot down the road.

Second base is a harder hole to fill, but the Twins would do well to slide their infielders Cuddyer and Punto over to second and short, respectively, either trading for a legitimate 3B (Morgan Ensberg, possibly), or allowing Matt Moses to fill the spot down the road. At this point, Terry Tiffee can't be considered more than a utility infielder, or at best a stopgap until a better solution at the hot corner can be found.

With a mixture of veterans, young talent, and up-and-coming prospects, the Twins should have a viable offense next year.

2005-09-17T23:11:00.000-07:00

Pitching Outlook...2006 and beyond

Pitching wise, the Twins are even more set, which is amazing considering their young position player talent.

Johan Santana is still the best lefty in the game, and he's still only 26 years old. His arm will carry the team for years to come. Another 26-year-old Venezuelan will help anchor the Twins' staff in the future.

A bad sign for opposing hitters.

Carlos Silva has upped his velocity this year and has one of the fastest sinkers in baseball. It remains to be seen if he can keep up the low ERA without striking anyone out, but in Silva, the Twins have the best young sinkerballer in the game.

Brad Radke may have first inning issues (mostly due to establishing his straight, slow fastball), but his value to the team can't be ignored. For the next few years, Radke will bring 200 innings and an ERA hovering around 4.

Kyle Lohse is showing signs this year, but it remains to be seen whether the Twins can wait another year for him to break out. His stuff isn't bad, but he isn't ace material. He's likely to provide Radke-like numbers (with more walks and fewer homers) if the Twins decide to keep him.

Oh, and that Baker guy and that Liriano guy are pretty good, too.

With guys like J.D. Durbin, Adam Harben, Boof Bonser, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, and Jay Rainville lurking in the minors, the Twins have nothing to worry about if the rotation behind Santana, Baker, Liriano, and Silva can't hold up. The Twins have more than 15 guys in the minors with legitimate makeup to be a MLB starter. At least three will pan out.

The bullpen is stocked with power arms, and closer Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in the league.

Juan Rincon has been shaky, but the father removed he is from his suspension, the more his confidence should increase. He is only 26.

Jesse Crain's lack of velocity and strikeouts is alarming, but hopefully it will creep back up. At 23, he's got plenty of time.

Despite sometimes-ineffective wildness, J.C. Romero is one of the best lefthanded relievers in the game. He's still got good years ahead at 29.

Matt Guerrier has been a surprise this year, taking well to the bullpen and producing a respectable ERA. While he's only 26, mediocre K/9 and BAA will probably relegate him to a mopup man at best.

Grant Balfour, 27, is another gas-throwing bullpen arm. He's sidelined this year but could come back strong from Tommy John surgery, which usually ups velocity. He's a pitcher to watch when he returns.

Down on the farm, flamethrower Travis Bowyer (24) is waiting for an opportunity to crack the major-league roster after chewing up AAA hitting. The Rochester closer has struck out 96 in just 74.3 innings of work, allowing only 51 hits in that time. And AA closer Pat Neshek is no slouch either. His funky delivery has struck out 95 in 82.3 innings of work.

Overall, the outlook is bright. With minor tweaking and a few sound trades, the Twins can create a Braves-like dynasty in the Central Division.

2005-09-16T23:33:00.000-07:00

Debunking the JC Romero Myth

Let's leave our emotions aside from judging JC Romero for one second and look at cold hard facts.*

JC Romero: Too many inherited runners, too few accolades

2-2, 2.25 ERA, 40 IP, 36 K, 28 BB, 1.50 WHIP

Low ERA, decent record, good K/9. Flat out bad K/BB, bad WHIP.

Let's delve further:

-2nd lowest ERA among lefty setup men with 30+ IP (Rhodes).
-9th highest K's among lefty setup men with 30+ IP (Sisco, Cotts, Villone, Rhodes, Thornton, Eyre, Marte, Fultz)

These top-nine strikeout guys (all have sub-3 ERAs), minus Thornton for his 5.50 ERA, are so far the eight best lefthanded setup men in baseball. Let's add in Jamie Walker, Mike Gonzalez, Chris Hammond, Kent Mercker, and Ray King; all have excellent ERA's and K's as well, to round out our field of the 13 best LHP setup men. Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Myers, and Will Ohman have decent ERA's and K's, but not nearly the IP to qualify.

Without hardly breaking a sweat, JC is in the top 13. Now let's start narrowing down the field.

Let's start by eliminating all setup men with K/9 ratios of less than seven. A true mark of a dominating reliever is a high K/9 ratio. Say goodbye to Ray King, Chris Hammond, Jamie Walker, John Grabow, and Kent Mercker. JC's mark of 8.1 K/9 puts him in the middle of the pack of the remaining setup men. Down to nine.

Next, let's take out guys who face more lefties than righties, thereby eliminating "LOOGYs." We're looking for best overall setup man, not best LOOGY. Goodbye, Ron Villone. Down to eight.

Now let's remove guys who are have an OBA of over .250 against either righthanded or lefthanded batters, eliminating setup men who can't be trusted to throw to one type of batter. Surprisingly, lefties hit both Damaso Marte and Arthur Rhodes hard (.286 and .310 respectively), so we will bid them adeiu. Down to six.

Let's rank our remaining six by win shares to determine the top six most valuable lefthanded setup men in the major leauges.

Number of Win Shares in Parens

Neal Cotts (6)
Scott Eyre (5)
Andrew Sisco (5)
Aaron Fultz (4)
JC Romero (4)
Mike Gonzalez (4)

So Cotts is the most valuable, Eyre and Sisco tied for second. Let's eliminate them for now. Now Fultz, Romero, and Gonzalez will vie for 4th place.

Let's compare already mentioned items: ERA, WHIP, and OBA. Add up their head-to-head ranks in these categories and the lowest one wins, like a backwards rotisserie.

It goes ERA, WHIP, OBA by the way.
Romero: 2.25, 1.50, .218
Fultz: 2.45, .98, .195
Gonzalez: 3.21, 1.32, .212

Or rotisserie style

Romero: 1, 3, 3 (7)
Fultz: 2, 1, 1 (5)
Gonzalez: 3, 2, 2 (7)

Fultz is fourth best.

Since Gonzalez has better K/9, K/BB, age, and cheaper salary, we'll give the nod to him.

Still, JC Romero is the sixth-best lefthanded setup man in baseball. What more could you ask for?

*Note: this is from the archives, so the stats are accurate as of August 30.

2005-09-15T00:11:00.000-07:00

Slighted

Ripped off

In my opinion, four starters that haven't got the HOF call yet deserve to. Those four are Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris, and Tommy John.

Blyleven was one of the most prolific strikeout artists of his day, and only two current HOFers have more K's. His was the dominant curveball in the league for years. His career win/loss record is 287-250. Remember, he played for some of the worst teams in baseball during his career, and his career ERA+ of 118 (3.31 career ERA) would have translated to way more wins with decent teams. Oh, and he also led the Pirates to the World Series championship in 1979 and the Twins to the world title in '87.

Jim Kaat holds a career 283-237 record. He has the third most wins of any retired non-HOFer. His career ERA+ is a decent 107. He won an unprecedented sixteen straight gold gloves at his position, and was known for his impeccable control (career 2.15 BB/9) and durability. He played 25 big-league seasons, and between '59 and '73, only one year did he not pitch 200 innings {178 that year). And he outdueled Sandy Koufax in game 2 of the 1965 World Series, then won it all as a reliever with the 1982 Cardinals.

Jack Morris was the dominant pitcher of the 1980s. His stats look lackluster on the surface (career 254 wins 3.90 ERA, 107 ERA+), but this ignores the intangibles which give Morris the HOF nod in my book. First off, he was the best pitcher of the 1980s, posting an unreal 164 wins in the decade for an up-and-down Tigers team. Second, he was in many ways the last traditional starting pitcher, racking up innings pitched. Finally, he was a clutch performer, posting a 3-0, 2.96 career record in World Series games, including a 10 inning shutout to clinch game seven of the 1991 championship with the Twins.

Finally, Tommy John should be a Hall of Famer too. He won 288 games with a 111 ERA+ and pitched into his mid-40s with decent success. He also altered the careers of hundreds of pitchers with his groundbreaking surgery. Although he never won a World Series, he pitched to a brilliant 2.67 ERA in 6 W.S. games.

2005-09-13T23:35:00.000-07:00

The 2-Hole

Minnesota: this is your two hitter.

Why is Nick Punto batting second? It seems to me that Gardy is obsessed with getting a speedy middle infield type guy in the two hole. He has started Rivas, Castro, Rodriguez, and Punto there basically the whole year.

Of those four, all but L-Rod have an OBP less than .300. And his is an inspiring .318.

I was fine with Punto in the second spot when he was batting .270 with a .340 OBP. But at .240 AVG? And after the walks evaporated? He's an eight-hole hitter at best now.

Last night's game highlighted the problem with Punto batting second. When the nine hitter, Bartlett, smashed a leadoff double in the eighth and Mike Ryan advanced him with a sacrifice, Punto the slug came up, fouled off ball four twice, then struck out on another ball four.

He may have redeemed himself with his winning double, but the fact is that I would rather have any other 2-hitter in the leauge up to bat with one out and a runner on third. Except Denny Hocking.

2005-09-12T00:09:00.000-07:00

This Year...

Hopefully this year will convince the Twins to finally acquire a marquee hitter for the middle of the lineup. They have the trade bait (Lohse and relievers who could be closers elsewhere), and there is a market for pitching. Even if they don't, there are some good players in the pipeline who can hopefully provide a jolt.

Kubel will be back, Morneau will play better, Mauer will take a step forward, and Cuddyer is still a breakout candidate. Bartlett never got the chance at the MLB level he deserved, and now he's playing like he wants to stay.

I'd like to see Cuddyer's erratic arm at 2B where he can't blow so many throws. Hopefully Moses is the 3B of the future. I think Alex Romero and Kubel can both be .300-30 HR guys eventually. Both have sneaky speed on the basepaths a la Joe Mauer or Albert Pujols, and could steal around 15 bags a season (assuming Kubel can still run on his knee).

The Twins need to realize that Nick Punto's .270 AVG/.345 OBP was a mirage and that he's nothing more than a backup infielder. So is Juan Castro. Jason Bartlett and Trevor Plouffe can't develop fast enough for this club.

Finally, Matt LeCroy rakes against lefties. He should be in the lineup as a DH against all lefthanded pitchers. Quick question: Who has more homers against lefthanded pitchers this year -- Pujols, Derrek Lee, A-Rod, or LeCroy? You guessed it, it's LeCroy, with 10 in a mere 92 at bats.

Maybe big Henry Sanchez, the high school slugger taken the sandwich round who the twins finally signed, can be a power bat that the Twins have missed lately.